Nesi’s Notes: April 18th
Rhode Island’s housing crisis had a split-screen moment Thursday. The day began with fresh evidence that state leaders’ supply-side push is having an effect; it ended with another sign their approach may not meet the political moment.
The progress report came from Governor McKee’s office, which trumpeted a new study showing 3,778 permits for new housing units were issued in Rhode Island last year — the highest level since the boom of the 1980s, and up over 40% in a single year.
“The tremendous increase in building permits is another validation that the more than 60 housing laws we have passed in recent years have had a significantly positive impact,” said Speaker Shekarchi, who has been the driving force on housing policy at the State House, though he went unmentioned in the governor’s press release.
“The overwhelming majority of the growth is private sector housing, not subsidized housing,” Shekarchi added. “This major surge in housing production is even more impressive coming at a time when interest rates are historically high.”
The new numbers arrived as supporters of the pro-housing YIMBY group Neighbors Welcome descended on the State House for their annual lobby day, armed with a fresh poll they commissioned showing widespread concern about housing costs and strong support for legislative action.
Of course, you can’t live in a housing permit. And while advocates insist it’s too soon to expect results, the focus on increasing supply so far hasn’t done much to move the needle on affordability. Single-family home sales remain in a deep freeze, while monthly rents continue to rise faster in Greater Providence than in most other metro areas.
That helps explain what occurred hours after the governor released the permitting numbers: the Providence City Council voted 9-6 to implement rent control — just one vote short of the 10 needed to override a veto by Mayor Smiley, which he duly issued Friday morning. For progressives, the vote count suggests they are tantalizingly close to enacting the policy, whether by flipping a council seat or defeating Smiley in his Democratic primary race against state Rep. David Morales this September. (“The mayor is out of touch with the people he was elected to serve,” Morales declared after the vote.)
Smiley’s opposition to rent control isn’t as unusual among elected Democrats as the council tally might suggest. In the region’s second-largest city, New Bedford, Mayor Mitchell made similar arguments to head off a push for rent control by some city councilors. And Governor Healey is doing the same now as she fights a ballot initiative that would impose rent control statewide, warning that the mere possibility has already led to projects being halted.
Smiley, Mitchell and Healey all argue that the solution to Southern New England’s housing affordability crisis is construction, construction and more construction. Many economists agree. But do voters? The Neighbors Welcome poll shows Rhode Islanders over age 65 — a pivotal voting bloc — are notably cooler to new construction.
That hasn’t mattered much so long as the state’s most powerful lawmaker is Shekarchi, who has poured political capital into housing production. But Shekarchi appears increasingly likely to apply for the newly vacant R.I. Supreme Court seat, and when he’s no longer on Smith Hill, YIMBY types will need a new legislative champion.
P.S. The report the governor’s office touted this week is the fairly new Annual Integrated Housing Report, mandated as part of Shekarchi’s 2022 housing package and produced by Housing Secretary Deb Goddard’s team. It’s full of interesting statistics. Here’s one: the median housing unit in Rhode Island was built in 1964, giving the state the third-oldest housing stock in the country, behind only New York and D.C.; in the city of Providence, the median housing unit was built in 1939.
